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~320 keys
moon
Unusual One-Man Army Cloudy Moon
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3 months old price.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1733076239,601,5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12043687

Sold 1:2 for cloudy ushanka (~6.6 buds) + s.f minigun (~1.1 buds).

Total of ~7.7 buds.

Rare hat, not a lot of sales.

    Ushanka isn't 6.6, sorry. Price is over a year old an impossibly outdated.

    From memory I'm pretty sure Koga has owned that cloudy moon one-man army when I made the last suggestion around 3 months ago (I suggested 4 - 4.6 buds). I'm confident that he wouldn't have had a buyout higher than 5.5 buds since then. Anyways I think the current price is already a tad high due to currency/bud price changes, and if you're going to use a 4 month old trade as justification you should also consider my suggestion that I made around early August.


    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14538813 (Here's another supposed "quicksale" for 4 pure. Buds were probably not worth more than 21 keys back then)

    I'm fairly certain cranwell would've asked for 5 if he could've got it easily.


    Also the guy who got the cloudy ushanka proceeded to set a buyout of 5 buds, so I'm really doubtful that offer was worth more than 6.5.

    http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/11978870

      Why that 4 buds shouldn't be included in range :

      -Phosphorous One-Man Army is worth 4 buds. Cloudy >>>>>>>>>> Phosphorous. Clearly an outlier, you can't say that cloudy = Phosphorous/G.E

      -Range will be too wide, 4-7.7.


      cranwell trade's is really a quicksell. He wanted 4, buds and it took only few days to sell it. This one is really a quicksell, invalid proof.


      And the guy who got the ushanaka set a B/O of 7 ...

      http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12043687

        Oops, sorry about that last bit then, must've got the owners mixed up. Just for the record I don't think think 7.7 buds flat will be accepted because of multiple lower past sales. And Koga owned it for several months, not my definition of a quicksell.

        http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13534852


        I don't see how the price of a robo effect one-man army helps your reasoning, from the looks of it the original suggestion was for that was around 3 buds. On a final note I really don't see why your one trade that didn't even involve pure is considered "valid", and two/three people looking for less than 5 buds pure is "invalid".

          Hmm then koga had it for more then I thought, my mistake.

          Well cranwell's quicksell that took several days. It's invalid for sure, as he also mentioned it's a quick sell, and he sold quicly, indeed. About my sale, I guess you are right, but with such difference between proofs, I'll do further re-search do collect more proof to see if the 4 buds is outlier, or the 7 one. Closing for now.