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2/3 of the evidence is thanks to "a bunch of orphans"
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13823959
SOLD: Orbit Fire Brown Bomer + 1 bud
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1152599049,671,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1889623043,143,6
(4 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13125041
SOLD: Ghosts Defiant Spartan
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1900670714,340,5
(2.7 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14506537
SOLD: Scorching Tough Guy's Toque
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1781663187,97,5
(3.7 buds)
Why would you do this to orphans :(
gotta love them counter suggestions
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14036436 - highest offer in 3 months is ~3-4
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14926019 - willing to do 3 pure
So I can't really call the 2.8 an outlier with a willing seller for 3 pure and I can't really call the other 2 sales outliers given two sales and offers close to 3.5-4. Accepting the wide range, which is common for these new hats that have so much variability