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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14890918 - Sold Crazy Laugh (3 ref) + Gremlin for 1 key (twice)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14303310 - 2 ref declined
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15310569 - I just bought mine for 1 ref.
Two 3 ref sales.
One 1 ref sale.
One 2 ref offer declined.
I like how one of your links is counter-proof to your own suggestion, that takes dedication to pull off.
With only two 3 ref sales, and one sale at 1 ref (a full 2 ref below your suggested price) maybe a lower amount is better, or at least a range.
Downboat for naow
2 ref is getting rejected.
I see my sale as an outlier/quickbuy.