Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14668983 - Orb Fire Marauder, other guy added TS Paint + S. Shotgun + S. L'etranger + V. Pyrovision = 1.6 buds

Side note: Took mid price of Marauder, but there is no original suggestion for it, so I have to use current :/

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14625438

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198023348565?time=1380610800 --->

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198023348565?time=1380697200

Orb Fire Anger + Green G. Cross-comm = 2.5 buds

Side note: Took mid price of Anger since it was offered on

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14191394 - Orb Fire Company Man + 3 keys = 1.7 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1920000859

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198069650770?time=1378364400 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198069650770?time=1378537200

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14146240 - 1.2 buds (outlier)

Conclusion

4 sales, one's an outlier. Vote accordingly.

Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3