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Counter suggesting.
Proof due credit to at Captain Spoopy.
Spoopy's price shows .66-.8 of a key, nothing of 1 key, only that people are selling at 1 key. Gotta get dat ugly range doe.
Spoopy's proof
Sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15411596 - 4 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15400181 - 4 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15431977 - 4 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15428155 - 5 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15420276 - 5 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15419159 - 4 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15432049 - Sold for 4 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15411200 - 5 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15411416 - 4.55
http://i39.tinypic.com/2cpsrvp.png - Some classifieds ranging from 3 Ref to 5 Ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15429827 - 3 Ref
None being sold for a key that I saw. No need for a conservative bump when it doesn't reflect the market.
And yes, I'm a whore.
Why not just 4-5 ref?
Although I linked no evidence, I'm sure you'll find some 1 Key sellers on Outpost if you do some digging. I know I did.
But to be honest, I'm fine with this price just as much as my own.
You don't see my point. Sure, you can find 1 key sellers, but I haven't seen many 1 key SOLDS.