I closed my previous suggestion because I didn't really have proofs for 3 ref.

Of course there are some solds at 3 ref but these are usually quicksells.

Most of new Haunted items goes for 1 key but sometimes it's ~5 ref

Sold

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15363185 - 3 refined + silver botkiller minigun (3 ref) + festive axt. (1.33), so it's 7.33 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15369351 - 1 key (2 solds)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15355754 - 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15397643 - 5 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15393444 - 4.66 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15389898 - 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15409648 - 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15410891 - 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15433354 - 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15415200 - yeah, kinda quicksell

Offers

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15375256 - rejected 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15376011 - rejected 4 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15356111 - offered 1 key

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15457465 - 3.33 ref, no adds

Classifieds on backpack.tf

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52705d744cd7b82c6e8b456a (for now it's 4.33 to 1 key)

It's still possible to sell this at 1 key but price is probably going down.