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This is a conservative bump. It isn't possible to give this item a completely accurate value so what follows is based on conservative approximations.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15496795[/url] Pure offers: 14, 17. These alone show the need for an increase.
Kordless' offer: "CM Ballcap + Disco Flamenco + DP practitioner + [1 bud + 18 keys + TS Bills] for PFetti."
The Ballcap's a nasty one because of its current Halloween status. Here, "bagel" has offered it ten pure. [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15054464[/url] The owner claims to want 16-18, which, of course, I interpret as 16. Kordless wants 16+ with the claim of offering a discount for pure. [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15482061[/url] Unfortunately none of these have sold since Halloween started so they can't really be given a current value aside from being somewhere within [10,16].
The Flamenco: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14885861[/url] It's been offered "Scorching Chieftan and a Blizzard Nappers." The Chieftan's Challenge needs an update but [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15525690[/url] shows that it's not really increased much. The Napper's Respite is similarly outdated. To be conservative, I'm calling them 5+2=7. Kordless' one ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15482060[/url]) last doesn't help with giving a value. So far, I can only work out that this hat's value is contained within [7,15]. I'm fully aware that this is a terrible range but that's why this hat hasn't been valued here yet.
The Practitioner's about 2.7 so being conservative (taking the lowest possible values), Kordless' offer was 10 + 7 + 2.7 + about 2.5 = 22.2.
Micah's offer: "Clean Secret Samureye (2nd owner) + clean moon kabuto." Unfortunately he didn't specify if this was for one, two or all of the unusuals available here.
Prince Ali Of Bubwa's Terror-Watt TC: This hat was listed here a couple of months ago as 23.5-25. [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13601187[/url] It still attracts the Burning Hazmat so it's still at least twenty. Thus I'll call it 20.
Concluding remarks: This is a severe approximation because at these values and with how quickly the set was sold, this unusual got new effects offered. If you had one to sell now, you probably could get 30+ in unusuals. Also, this suggestion is a first draft. This particular unusual is, unfortunately, so rarely available that its value can't be given on a spreadsheet. What I'm proposing is simply a better (by being more accurate) value. If you can find evidence of it being worth more (with offers of old, stable unusuals, say) then please feel free to show it.
Please give opinions. This one's a hard one to find evidence for so I'll happily take constructive criticism on this suggestion.
It sold for a lot more than this and I don't think Neymar wants it priced.
It sold in a set. That's my issue. Say you 32 straight would be better?
Update: [url]http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/4859-purple-confetti-noh-mercy/[/url] As Vince has pointed out, Neymar exceeded the buy-out in unusuals so perhaps 32 might be a better value. Please give thoughts. I've never liked sets because of this conundrum but it certainly does make sense. Should this go to 32?
Nobody else wants to sell this and none of them care what the price on here is. The sale is obviously an outlier and it wasn't up long. I personally suggest leaving it alone.
I asked Woifi about it. He said that he's okay with it being updated. Also, by that logic, every Noh Mercy sale is an outlier.
Woifi =/= Neymar. Oh well, I'm just saying that this doesn't need to be done.
I think that we'll just have to disagree there. I think that this one needs an update. My main problem is whether to take the offers (that are almost three times the current suggested value) or the buy-out price since Neymar jumped to buy it. As you've said, he took it quickly while he had the chance so he might've over-paid. However, since this was the only one available, we could also argue that its value is determined by that.
I'm saying it could have been offered the B/O of 32 later on. Relying on only offers made in around 1 day seems silly, as it may have been offered the B/O later.
But, as you probably guessed, Neymar seems to have overpayed and his sale is an outlier (it was higher than the all B/Os combined by a fair amount and he is known to overpay most of the time).
I don't see a clear answer what to make the price and I personally think it's better to just leave the price as it stands.
I'm sure that people would've said that a month ago about N&B too. We all know what happened there.
Still more accurate than the current bullcrap price.
The suggested price might be inaccurate as well. I prefer things right over raising just for the sake of raising it based on offers.
I have no words. Why someone would pay that much is beyond me.
Because of the rarity and because they can
Neymar certainly over-paid with a heap of hats so please give thoughts: Should this be given Shadow's buy-out price of 32?
No.