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Counter-suggestion to: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5281164f4cd7b8566b8b456e - range is off
Original accepted values used and over-pay applied when applicable
Proof #1:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15614996
Sold + ~6.5 keys (~0.4 buds) for an Aces Lucky Shot (~3.3)
Total: ~2.9 buds
Proof #2:
---No Outpost Trade---
http://i.imgur.com/SmiFjsc.png
Sold for: Over-clocked Phantom (~2.5)
Total: 2.5 buds
For that second proof
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198018208279?time=1383897600 - has pith helm
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198018208279?time=1383984000 - has overclocked phantom
A lot of change in the backpack, but this trade (most probably) did occur.