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Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14742284 - Smoking El Jefe = 2.2 buds
Side note: Took mid price since it was offered on
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14935171 - 2 buds & 8 keys = 2.5 buds
Conclusion
2 sales, bumping this down, Vote accordingly.
Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome!