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I'm giving this a conservative increase (currently it's 1.4-1.5). Few Vivid Plasma l'Inspecteurs are available so this increase is based mostly on offers and only one sale (which also supports this suggested value). My suggested value is 1.4-1.8.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14176484[/url] "1 bud, orb fire shooters topi, and 3 keys?" This was in late September when earbuds were about twenty keys. With an over-payment, this is about 1.8.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15642545[/url] Offered a Blizzardy Swagman's Swatter, which is about 1.3 but that's outdated. I don't know what it actually sold for because a private money offer was involved ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14638646[/url]).
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14301267[/url] Another hidden sale but it was offered a bud and a festive set in September, which is at least 1.5.
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14483529[/url] Another hidden sale but in September it had a nice offer. "Chromatic bill's, Lime bill's, Black/white bill's, and sweets for the L'inspecteur." It was indeed four Bill's Hats ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14575295[/url]). With a Halloween spell being involved, it's difficult to know exactly what this offer was worth at the time, but roughly it's about 1.5.
My lower value's chosen as 1.4 because this hat has multiple offers at 1.3-1.5. The higher value of 1.8 is chosen because of the sale in my first hyperlink.
I would not except such old sales and offers as proof of current demand. In September this item did not even have an outdated price.
The Swagman's Swatter was earlier this month. :P Also, the sale 1.8 was on the 28th of September. I don't think that there have been any later documented sales but I'll keep searching until either I find more evidence or conclude that this update isn't necessary.
Got another September sale: [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14483529[/url] "I'd trade it 1:1 with Strange Festive Rocket Launcher." He now has one by the new owner of the hat. [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/backpack/76561197965327252[/url] This is closer to two buds but close enough to 1.8 that it's within a margin of error. I don't know why I didn't see that sentence the first time. Although these sales were one and a half months ago, they do show that 1.5 was too low.
Here's another September (but early on the 5th) offer of 1.5. [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14162519[/url]
The Halloween event will change how people view any hat and thus what they might be willing to pay for it.
None of the offers or sales that I've presented were based on any Halloween items. This is an old hat with an old effect.
True however the suggested high end is too high given the evidence.
Wouldn't it be too low, if anything? You added about 0.3 (5 keys) to the hat in order to buy a weapon that's valued at 2.2-2.3, putting the hat at 1.9-2.0 based on that sale. I'm not worrying about any over-pay here since he specifically wanted a Spy hat, but if we were to consider it, this hat would be even higher since it was offered for that weapon. I can't see how this makes my suggested high value too high.
Today is the SF RL is at 2.2-2.3 buds however the trade was conducted at September 21st when it was at 1.7 buds.
You need to use the SF RL price at the time of the trade which according to SF RL price history was 1.7 buds as accepted in August suggestion.
The time was closer to its next update which brought it up to 1.7-2, so I would argue that it was a bit higher than 1.7 at the time. However, you are right for pointing that out to me. Overall though, that's not against my suggestion. There are multiple offers around 1.4 (as is the worst case scenario with your trade) and a sale at 1.8.
For example as another offer, the GE Geisha if the l'Inspecteur's owner added twelve keys. The geisha was, at the time, bringing in offers at and above two buds ([url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14451292[/url], [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14369578[/url]). The twelve keys were 0.6, so this was an offer at least 1.4.
Basically, this hat receives plenty of offers at 1.4 and has sold for 1.8. 1.8 isn't so much higher than 1.4 that it can be called an outlier, especially with how rarely this hat sells. The person who offered 1.8 didn't just offer it to the person who got it. [url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14638646[/url] Had you not sold before it, you might've even received that offer too.
As for that particular Strange Festive Rocket Launcher, it had strange parts worth about 2.5 keys, which would've increased its value by at least one key or 0.05 buds at the time. You sold the hat for at least 1.5 buds. If I argue that the weapon was closer to two then you sold it for 1.7 buds. My suggested range covers either argument.
I'm the guy that bought the SF RL however it was for L'Inspecteur + 5 keys http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14335808.
Shouldn't base the low end on offers. If it has several offers at 1.5, I don't understand why the low end is 1.4. Should really be 1.8 flat if that's the only recent sale.
What about the Strange Festive Rocket Launcher where five keys were added to the hat? The SFRL was somewhere between the 1.7 suggestion and the 1.7-2.0 suggestion. The five keys were about 0.3, so if it was still at 1.7 then this would be a sale at 1.4. If, however, it was up at two straight then it's a sale at 1.7. I want to hear your opinion on this trade before I close this. :P
That's true... I suppose this is probably as close an estimation as we get on this