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Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used
Sales
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13618072 - 1 bud + 16 keys = 1.9 buds
Side note: Buds were around 18 keys around then
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13586817 - 1 bud + 7 keys + Pink Bills = 1.6 buds
Side note: Buds were 21.5-22 around that time
Conclusion
The two most recent sales, vote accordingly.
Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome!
The 1.6 sale is pretty old... But this is pretty close.