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http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/5285cbff4cd7b83d458b4569
1 at 3, 1 at 3.5.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15722362 - Sold for 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15721221 - Selling for 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15716170 - Selling for 3 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15730127 - 3.5 (1 day)
http://bazaar.tf/trade/536847 - 4 keys (1 day)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15707055 - 2 keys (outlier)
4 shouldn't be in the range, it's very easy to get one at much lower + there's almost no sales at 4+.
I'm pretty certain the seller at 4 keys was sold. The item is no longer in their inventory and it happened 16 hours ago? Umm correct me if I'm wrong :P
And uhhh, this strange one was apparently sold at 5 key, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15729672 (can't seem to find it in their inventory, happened in 3 hours and no relist at a different price?)...Again, correct me if I'm wrong :P
That'd be an outlier anyway given the amount of sellers looking for less.
It's a buy now trade, of course it's not in their backpack. If the button is still clickable, then it's not sold.
Theres one on classified's going for 2.5 keys right now, posted 10 hours ago
First page on outpost:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15753129 - 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15721221 - 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15716170 - 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15750184 - 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15744827 - 3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15730127 - 3.5
Better than the other suggestion