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Overpay calculated by mid price multiplied by .9 while Buds are currently priced at 18-20 keys.
Using the last two links as the basis for pricing since the first two are outliers in my opinion (Feel free to debate this over)
Remake of my first suggestion: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/528cdba14cd7b8806e8b4568
Completed Trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15329381 - 3 Pure | Quicksell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15547471 - Offered the HoC -> Cloudy Moon Backbitters Billycock (4.4)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13771921 - 169.99 Euros | 36.90 Dollars per Bud = 27.28 Euros per Bud | 229.94 Dollars = 169.99 Euros | Result: 6.2 | Has a BO of 5 so this sale counts as 5.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15764202 - C9 Hat of Cards (?) + Planets Noir (.7) + Blizz Glove (.7) -> GE Anger (7.2 | Using the value on the chart) | Calculated overpay since the HoC was offered on the Anger | 7.2 - .7 - .7 = 5.8
Item history as proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2029335844,825,5 - Hat of Cards | http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2086220031,102,5 - Blizz Glove
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2092901969,319,5 - Planets Noir | http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2091178465,518,5 - GE Anger
Slightly incorrect; I sold the blizz glove before he accepted my offer; it was replaced with 19 keys; but I don't think this even alters the range you're proposing. Also, neither of us were particularly using the backpack.tf value of the anger to decide on the trade; we both considered my payment to be around 8 in mixed with the hat of cards at 6. Plus, a lower bud pure/cash offer can be so much more tempting than say a higher offer in unusuals would be and this site really never takes enough account of that.
http://imgur.com/a/Ecb3I <here's my trade, anyway.
Thanks for the clarification.
also why are you counting over 5 buds in cash as 5 buds?
His BO is at 5. If you want to get technical, you can go check the prices Buds in cash 2 months ago.
tf2finance puts them at $36 on September 24th which means even more over 5 than it already was by your own calcs. Does his buyout really matter if even he gets more than 5 for it and if I also got a lot more than 5 for it?
Feel free to present counter proof.
His BO negates the 6.2 :P
The proof is right there, a sale at 6.2 and a sale at "5.8". How does what his personal "I would accept this" price negate the fact that he and I were able to get much much more? Since when did buyouts>sales in terms of proof.
Someone paying more than a b/o is overpay by definition. You can't use tf2finance or sourceop / outpost cash trades as proof of buds value for a market sale since real life $ =/= steam wallet $. Tax, etc. has to be factored in for both parties, and it's just advisable in general not to use steam market sales as proof.
Having said that, we can safely say his b/o of 5 was met, and I'd say this is a fair assessment of the hats value.