Suggestion: Arcana Chieftain's Challenge at 126–141.47 keys

Price Suggestion

~2050 keys

arcana

84 votes up

18 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Fri, 22 Nov 13 14:22:16 +0000 by the submitter.

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--Arcana Chieftain's Challenge--

1 of 1, and unless there's one in a private bp it's gonna stay that way for at least a year.

First sale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/209982 (scroll down to see the trades with it) Sold for at least a HH, check the history (it's the trade above the Chief.)

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198008312456?time=1384070400 Sort by time, there was a bud gotten at around the same time as it.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2073459352 This bud's history. It was received via a bot, which leads me to believe he received the amount of keys necessary to equal a bud.

Therefore, this makes it 2.35 + 1 = 3.35 buds.

This is a quicksell, as you'll see below. Please note that it doesn't matter if you think the pricing for this sale is a bit dodgy (I think so too) as this is a quicksell. Refer to sales 3 and 4.

Second sale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15603038 Sold for Darkblaze Das Naggenvatcher + 1 bud.

No cigar, as there is no price set for the Das yet.

Third sale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15660552 Sold along with 2 buds for an Anti-Freeze Head Warmer.

Simple maths. Since the Chief was offered on the Warmer:

0.9*Chief + 2 = Head Warmer median

0.9*Chief = 7.1 - 2

Chief = 5.1/0.9

Chief = 5.7 buds (after rounding)

Fourth sale

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15666411 Sold for Kill-A-Watt Solly's Scopes, Stormy Attendant and Planets Noir.

Overpay applied to those hats as they were offered on the Chief.

0.9(All the medians of those hats) = Chief

0.9(4.6 + 1.55 + 0.92) = Chief

0.9*7.07=Chief

Chief = 6.4 buds (after rounding)

Current trade

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15670179 No offers worth noting yet

So, in conclusion, I'm deeming 3.35 buds as an outlier because quicksell wtf. Therefore, the range is 5.7-6.4 from the other two sales.

That will be all.

~Swate

As I always do, if I have anything to add (which I doubt, but it's always possible), then I'll post it below with big fat text reading ADD-ON

Also, I'm doing this suggestion just before I go to sleep, so any constructive criticism will have to wait until I wake from my eternal slumber.

Cheers~

That's a lot of dedication for a white belt

Thanks, I pride myself on quality C: I won't be a white belt for long.

Good job for a white belt, but there are few rules you forgot.

1. Use original prices :

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/4350-new-rule-use-original-suggested-values-of-unusuals/

For example, original price for the head warmer was 8.2-9.2 according to the graph here http://backpack.tf/stats/644/5/69 , and not 6.7-7.5. So you must use 8.2-9.2 price range for the head warmer, and not the 6.7-7.5 one.

2. If you're pricing the chieftains, and the chieftains was offered for the head warmer, no overpay should be calculated, you only take mid original price. Original mid price for the head warmer is 8.7, since 2 buds were added, it's total of 6.7 buds for the third sale.

Looking forward to see your next suggestions, I'm sure you'll do great work next time, if you need any further help, feel free to add me.

Thanks, I very much appreciate the assistance.

Just one thing I've always been confused about is the use of the word "original" in "original value." Does that mean the very first price ever suggested for it, or the price it was during the sale?

I'm just wondering, that 8.2-9.2 it says, isn't that according to the price of buds then? If you look at the suggestion that passed for the Head Warmer (which must've been 8.2-9.2 at time of posting due to low price of buds 2 weeks ago), the price I have must be Median(8.2-9.2)=8.7's value at today's bud price of 19 keys. I don't see what I did wrong there :o it's just the original suggested value in today's terms of bud value. Even look at the suggestion, its "suggested value" has dynamically changed with the flow of buds price.

Original price means the very first price that ever suggested for it. The price that was suggested by the suggester who priced it. http://backpack.tf/stats/644/5/69 , for the head warmer, ERASER [BY] recently updated it's price. But he didn't suggest 6.7-7.5 buds as a price, he suggested 8.2-9.2 buds. I can prove it by looking in his suggestion, http://backpack.tf/vote/id/527940234dd7b8e4548b456b , low end because of the first sale, and high end because of the third sale. I can also prove it by looking in the cached page of the suggestion. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-Ah5DyFA-sgJ:backpack.tf/vote/id/527940234dd7b8e4548b456b+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=il (changed a bit because of currency changes).

About the buds changes, if an unusual sold for 3 buds, and 1 month later someone suggests a price for this hat, he'll use this sale as 3 buds, whether if the buds changed or not during this month, but an unusual sold for 60 keys when buds where 15 each, and someone suggests a price a month later when buds are 20 each, only then he'll count this sale as 4 buds, and not as 3 buds. To sum up, when buds used as proof, you ignore the keys changes, and just count the buds, but when keys used as proof, you must count them according to the buds price at the time of the sale.

Ah, I see. That clears it up actually a fair bit, thanks a lot.

Another thing (sorry xD), why isn't reverse overpay applied to the Chief in the Head Warmer sale?

You shouldn't be sorry, it's alright to ask questions. And reverse overpay isn't often used, either use overpay if a hat was offered for the chieftains, or don't use overpay if the chieftains was offered.

Interesting. Alright, that clears a fair bit up ^^ cheers for the 1 on 1 question-answering.

If this doesn't pass, I'll remake it with 6.7 as the high. Or if it does pass, I'll still redo it. Eh, mods do whatever, I don't like having something incorrect so either way I'll just resuggest for 5.7-6.7.

Best if you'll close it now, won't waste the mods time, and you won't lose rep. And use original prices for both sales.

Good point actually. Will do that now.