If I had a nickle for everytime someone added me saying "hurr durr, iz only worth 10 keyz, I gib gud deal"....

I'd have about 25 cents.

Anyhow, recently sold mine for S Machina with Headshots

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15942373

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15950509

To this guy.

Thing is that he said he didn't check prices beforehand and thought he got a bad deal, so does that sale count?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13903958

Here's a trade, with one guy saying he'd pay the 18 keys b/o, fell through prob

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15742274

Offers of 14 keys in items and 12 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15614197

Got offered smoking safe n sound (14)

This proof is a bit shaky so feel free to provide counters.

Hat seems to be uncommon on the market, so not that many sales.

Setting the range to 14-18.

G fetti is 15-16, so doesn't seem totally off.