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1 of 1 in the world, and I don’t intend to sell this one anytime soon, so I hope this proof suffices. All unusual offers have had unusual overpay calculated and have used original values. Mandatory preamble finished, let’s jump right into the proof!
Sale 1: Sold for Haunted Ghosts Ze Goggles (8.5 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15395898
http://backpack.tf/id/76561197999071949?time=1383289200
http://backpack.tf/id/76561197999071949?time=1383375600
Sale 2: Sold for Sulphurous Flamenco + Orbiting Planets Your Worst Nightmare (~11.4 buds)
http://imgur.com/cFRio9w,2gCUR0F,GZohXiz,aWWusKz
As these are the only two sales, I shall set the price to 8.5-11.4, I know it is a huge range but it is all there will be.
I hope that proof is enough, but if there is anything wrong with this suggestion, feel free to give any constructive criticism, it will be greatly appreciated.
The proof looks okay to me, and I'm not exactly a professional at these types of things but there aren't many sales on 1/1 unusuals anyway.
The range is a little high but that's okay considering there have only been a couple sales.
You've got my vote.
This is why the unusual market is a train wreck. None of the newer players can afford pure and these crazy ass amounts get allotted to hats. With thousands of hats how can a Flies Ol Geezer not be a 5 key hat. I think Bill's hat are of more value then some of the garbage.
So why the rant......
The Ghosts goggles IMO is a much better hat by itself than the Flamenco and Planets nightmare and yet goes for 25% less in proof? I mean the flamenco is a great hat but sulphurous is as bad as bubbles IMO. Somehow all this new shit effects are commanding dozen buds? Really? New Halloween priced higher than energies? Its this inflated pricing that has players that use pure at a disadvantage.
I mean this is going to price right under Burning which is a GOD tier effect for the pyro and above scorching and GOD tier effect for pyro? Again, this is absolute madness.
In regards to the goggles, I think it is a great hat as well, but I am not the one to state its current value, I am merely using the most current suggested value as proof to give a value to this unusual.
In response to sulphurous as an effect, I would say it deserves to be high tier; it is essentially pixellated burning flames, but that is my opinion. And that is the thing, this is bp.tf, where opinions do not matter, only proof of how much items are bought and sold.
Also, consider this; this hat, in the situation where this suggestion is passed, will rank it below "It's a Secret to Everybody", as well as burning, therefore your comment that this effect will be 'right under Burning' is incorrect. And burning will still be 4-5 buds higher! Also consider that this is the one and only one of this hat with this effect in the world, and will be for a whole year, that alone would increase the value of it, as it means that one seller can command the whole market. That is the reason Halloween Effects are above energies on average, due to the rarity they grant, and the fact none will be unboxed for a long time.
My comment isn't just aimed at your hat but the market in general. The hats are being inflated to a much larger number to allow allot more unusual trading on outpost. Again, for those that only use pure they are at a serious disadvantage for using the most liquid of payments.
Burning will only be 3.5 buds higher on the max end. Don't talk buds but percentage and it even makes less sense.
As far as Halloween effects.......I've seen a few just in the last few days that didn't exist before. With private backpacks and bot services some are hidden from stats. Never say 1 of 1 because that is rarely true. As far as rarity for a small window I see sometimes 4 or 5 of the new effects. When you look at that effect against, say, cauldron bubbles is it really rarer with just 1 or 2 less hats? An effect that has been available multiple times over two/three years or a hat that only had a few weeks and has almost just as many unboxed? Plenty of hats with just 1 of 1 effects like fetti or flies....Doesn't make them 15 bud hats because of that.
Sale #1:
Ze Goggles original price is 8.5 - 9, ~7.9 after overpay
Total Sale: ~7.9
Sale #2:
Sulphurous Flamenco original price is 10 - 11, ~9.5 after overpay
Orb. Planets Your Worst Nightmare original price is unknown so I'll use current, ~1.4 after overpay
Total Sale: ~10.9
First of all in small ranges (such as Ze Goggles (8.5 - 9) and Flamenco (10 - 11) calculating overpay through low end is wrong, a 0.25 buds overpay for a 8.75 buds hat is nowhere near overpay, such as 0.5 buds overpay for a 10.5 buds hat.... it works with Your Worst Nightmare because the hat is very low itself)
Second of all there's a Sulphurous Flamenco for 9.5 at Classifieds so if it's clean the hat price is probably lower and even if not better calculation provides a more accurate range
Surely using 0.9 * median be worse for higher value unusuals as it means you end up with a value vastly below the lower range? Wouldn't that skew value by a high degree? I agree with lower value unusuals either of the methods are good, but I find the median method does not scale well with high values, as the lower value is meant to state the value for which you can buy an item using pure, whilst the upper value is meant to show the amount you can buy in unusual. Usually that doesn't happen though as unusual to unusual trades are pretty much the only way unusual trading goes nowadays...
I kept to the lower range for that reason, but I guess that is just my personal philosophy on the matter. Feel free to resuggest, if you want. I'll keep this open and let the mods decide.
Edit: looking it up, seems general consensus higher valued unusuals use lower range, lower tier use median: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/1803-standardized-unusual-overpay-method/
Yeah, again I feel like I have to apologize for things not being 100% clear in forums about some of the unusual suggestion rules. We have a brand new, detailed, comprehensive guide mostly ready. We are just waiting on the massive site update to be pushed through with a complete revamping (hopefully) of the way unusual prices are stored over time: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/5172-unusual-hat-pricing-best-way-to-store-their-value-over-time/
We have decided to make all overpay 0.9 * middle to make things standardized. It's not an issue if it's close (as it is here), but just to keep in mind. Why? Well, if the range is 10-10.1, taking the low end of 10 is not enough overpay. If the range is 1-5, taking 1 is too much overpay. Everything should just be standardized to 0.9 * middle, regardless of hat tier.
Two sales on a 1 of 1 hat. Sale values are close. Accepting