Suggestion: Orbiting Fire Prince Tavish's Crown at 25.6–29.86 keys

Price Suggestion

~25 keys

o.fire

88 votes up

49 votes down

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This suggestion was closed Sun, 01 Dec 13 16:08:56 +0000 by A Distinctive Lack of Vincent.

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Comments

Not sure why the previous one was accepted. I even posted a counter-argument but it wasn't replied to...

Last Two Sales (known, both from me):

Taken from other proof ( http://backpack.tf/vote/id/528f326f4cd7b875228b4568 ):

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15597529

"SOLD tf logo chief + 5 keys + crown for ghosts chief (crown price 1.2)"

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15647320 is my recent trade, take a look at the last few posts.

http://imgur.com/c1doBD4 is what I ended up selling it for. 21 keys + 6.33 refined (1 key) + Lime Brock's Locks (~4 refined, taking 50% paint value) + Level 42 Tuxxy (~3.33 refined) + Honcho's Headgear (1.33-1.66 refined) + War Pig (1.33 refined), added up is approximately 1.5 keys. That means I sold for a total of 22 keys pure + 1.5 keys in items = 23.5 keys. Buds are 18-20 at time of selling, so that means I sold it for somewhere between 1.175 buds and 1.3055 buds --> 1.2-1.3 buds.

Note that 147ptm also posted an offer of 23 keys for the crown (collecting), 6 days ago. I believe this was RIGHT before the jump of buds, so that's actually an offer of around 1.2-1.3 buds.

I was also offered a Smoking Dragonborn (value 1.5-1.8 on bp.tf, albeit outdated, taking middle price * 0.9 = 1.485 --> 1.5 buds value; taking low value * 0.9 = 1.35 buds, just for reference).

Cupcake also offered 19 keys, was thinking about 20 keys, when Buds were 16-17 keys --> 1.2 bud offer approximately.

Here is another trade: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15154836

Note that 22 keys pure is C/Oed one again, and 1 bud is hidden by the trade owner, rejected, TWICE! (Once was 1 month ago, another was like a week ago). 22 keys as mentioned before = ~1.2 bud pure offer. 1 bud was rejected.

Three weeks ago, another offer was Bubbling Private Eye (1.2-1.6), which is an average of ~1.25 bud offer. Owner said if the PE guy added 3 keys, which the PE guy said he would have, it would have been a deal, essentially making the price of the crown 1.4 buds. Although this was 3 weeks ago, it still serves as a good example of why 1 bud should NOT be in the range.

All this put together, I see a fair range on this hat going back to 1.2-1.4 buds instead of 1-1.4 buds as suggested a few days ago. The two recent sales I could find both put the bare minimum of the hat at 1.2 buds, and had multiple people offer 1.2 buds in pure. Other offers were below that range and were hidden (especially the 1 bud pure offers, direct counter-proof to including 1 pure in the range). 1.4 buds was offered in unusuals, so I put that as the high range.

Please leave comments here, how to improve, any qualms, etc...

Thanks.

You need sales, not offer :o

I put in two sales buddy...

Oh, sorry i mean your second link haven't sold yet, you can't use offer as a price.

Bro...did you even read what I wrote up there :/? The second link is my trade, I sold it and closed the trade, didn't "x-out" the Crown, but the trade is closed and gone.

I even posted an Imgur link to my Trade History and showed and calculated what I sold it for. I have the last two recent sales up there, and then pulled out more proof by using recent offers to help support my claim that it should be 1.2-1.4 instead of 1-1.4.

Forgive me if I don't get something since I didn't look at the last suggestion but polar bear posted:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15360445 - added 6 for of reggae ~1 (no overpay)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15084018 - of degroot (1-1.2 based on original suggestion)

which supposedly proves the 1 bud as low end. Your smoking dragonborn offer is 1.3-1.6 originally: http://backpack.tf/stats/517/5/35 so 1.3. I suggest you use original prices if you didn't.

Okay, I just looked 'em up on bp.tf and it said 1.5-1.8 so I used that.

Either way though, those were ~1 month ago, still "valid" I guess, but the two most recent trades have bumped it up, with the last two sales being at 1.2 buds to 1.3 buds solidly. Plus, 22 keys was only "C/O"d in the other trade, and most notably, 1 bud was flat-out rejected. The 1 bud B/O went pretty quickly, so you might call that a "quicksell".

Not to mention, the guy called "Oliver" who offered 1 bud in the last link (iirc) also added me later on and offered 1.2 buds pure collecting, although he didn't post on my trade. So that makes three people over the course of ~1 week who offered 1.2-1.3 pure, and then I ended up selling it for ~1.3 pure, so that makes FOUR people in one week who were willing to pay around 1.2-1.3 for it. 1.4 is in the range because that's the higher part of the Unusual Offers that were going around overall.

To be honest declining offers and c/os don't give you the whole picture. A lot of people want more, that's why they decline the lower offers, but really I can decline anything I want. I agree the 1 bud pure sale was a quicksell, but the ones polar bear provided didn't sell as fast and I'm afraid it's hard to ignore 2 valid sales. Regardless, I don't see much of a difference between 1.2 and 1.3, bp.tf is only giving an approximation but I suppose either low end is possible.

You're right, there isn't much of a difference between 1.2 and 1.3, but my point is that 1 should not be in the range. The two "1 bud sales" were both Unusuals. Both might have liked the respective hats better. The 1 bud sale was definitely sold quickly, so 1 pure can be considered a quicksell. Thus, if 1 bud PURE is quicksell-ish, why is 1 bud in unusuals not considered a "lower than usual price"?

Also, these were all ~1 month ago, and then I brought up two recent sales of 1.2-1.3, along with three more people willing to pay 1.2 buds PURE on this hat. That makes 5 people paying at least 1.2 PURE BUDS, with the last two recent sales at 1.2 buds, so why should 1 bud be included in the range still? 1 bud flat was a quicksell, and for all we know, those two other sales could have been because the owners liked the respective hats more.

Please have a look here before your next suggestion: http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/4350-new-rule-use-original-suggested-values-of-unusuals/

There were 3 sales at 1 for the low end.

OF Degroot was last suggested at 1-1.2

OF Reggae was last suggested at 1.1-1.4; offered, so no overpay here, but 6 keys were added so ~1

And there was then that one sale that went quickly for 1 pure?

3 sales at 1.

You can't use listed, inflated prices as indicated in the link I provided. Giving you a few minutes to close this. If you have any questions, feel free to direct them towards the thread I provided.

These were all 1 month ago, and I posted two more recent sales that added up to 1.2, and three willing people at 1.2 too. That makes 5 RECENT offers/deals of at least 1.2 pure buds as opposed to 1-month old 1 bud offers, yet we still go with the 1 bud offers? I'm a little confused as to why we do that then, could you please explain why three 1-month prices trump 5 recent ones?

Unusual prices don't fluctuate within a month. Sales up to 2 months are fair game.

Sure, but I've posted 5 recent proofs versus 3 older ones. The 1 bud one was a quicksell, bought very quickly, yes? So if 1 bud pure is basically quicksell, why is 1 bud in unusuals not a quicksell? For all we know, the owners of the Crown might have liked the Reggae/Tavish Degroot better, and were willing to add a bit more to get hats they liked. However, 1 bud PURE > 1 bud Unusuals in terms of price stability, and 1 bud pure went very quickly, not to mention, like I said, I have 5 recent proofs of at least 1.2, yet somehow month-old 1 buds still trump it overall? That just doesn't make sense to me, any O. Fire Crown selling for 1 bud will be bought very soon as I have shown with three people offering 1.2 buds pure (so 1 bud ones would be bought for sure), and that 1 bud pure B/O being taken quite fast.

EDIT: Maybe the high range of 1.4 is a bit dubious, since the only way I calculated that was from the Smoking Dragonborn, so I could re-suggest at 1.2-1.3, which I have shown (what I feel is) SOLID evidence for, and shown that 1 bud is not in the picture any more for this hat.

All prices on this website are estimates. 1-1.4 vs 1.2-1.3 doesn't make much of a difference. 1-1.4 just suggests that a few sales happen at 1, most happen at 1.2, and a few happen at 1.4. The sales seem to fall in that distribution. I don't see the problem with the current range. But since you feel so strongly about it, I'll leave this for another mod.

imo, 3 sales at 1 are hard to ignore.

Mkay, I just feel that three month-old 1 bud sales (including a 1-bud flat quicksell, which generally doesn't count), although technically "still in consideration" according to bp.tf, should definitely be trumped by two recent sales at 1.2-1.3, along with three other offers of at least 1.2 pure all made very recently. I could be wrong; I haven't made many Unusual Suggestions so I'm not a "pro" at this or anything, but I just find it hard to believe that 1-1.4 is more accurate than 1.2-1.4 (or 1.2-1.3 if another mod deems that a better range) given that 5 people have offered at least 1.2 in pure, and I myself and another trader have rejected 1 flat already--giving more proof that an O. Fire Crown for 1 bud flat would be sold relatively quickly.

Thanks for leaving this up, I'd be happy to hear some more opinions from other mods to see what they think as well. I know this is a counter-suggestion to the one accepted 5 days ago, but I definitely disagreed with it (since I still owned it at the time, and I rejected 1 bud pure offers and had a few people collecting 1.2 buds), so I felt that I should counter-suggest.

Polar bear is correct, three hard sales can't just be ignored.

Closing.