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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15727830 - Sold For Nuts Crone's + 5 keys (2.8 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15421691 - Sold with a NnB Bonnet, TS Bill's, Black Vintage Tyrant's, Genuine Ap-Sap, Genuine Shred Alert, Purple Merc's and Genuine Brown Hero's Tail for a Misty Pot. NnB Bonnet = 12 keys, Items = ~19 keys, Pot = 3.1. No overpay on pot as Das Guten owner offered on it. (3.1 - 0.6 - 1 = ~1.5 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15275572 - Sold For A Salty dog, A rag, and a Cosa, all Orb Fire http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044139509?time=1382770800 > http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044139509?time=1382943600 (1.2 + 0.7 + 1.2 = 3.3 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15252110 - Sold For a Purp Fetti Tyran (2 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14741655 - Sold for 2 Flies Toques, a Green Fetti Gonzilla, and a bud (2(0.8) + 0.8 + 1 = 3.4 buds)
The 1.5 bud sale appears to be an outlier considering the current trade has an offer of 2.5 pure > http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15949636 so it will be exluded from the range. the 2 bud sale is kept because it's in a closer proximity to the other sales.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15949636
Offers
2.5 pure - and honestly, the 3 pure offer seemed legit, he was just too slow on it as the buyer bought something else
Smoking MC + Bubbling Lil Buddy + Nuts Tsarboosh ~2.5
Ghosts Panama + 10 keys ~2.3
EOF salt ~2.3
Every single offer on the current trade is above the low end here. That is definitely too low. 2.5-3.4 would definitely be better
I agree with polar bear, the 2 bud sale is probably also an outlier, as offers are better than that. Maybe use the 2.8 bud sale as the low end?