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2 sales in the last 3-4 months, so it's time to establish a price.
Trade 1
Lil Barack adds for pure offer: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15656678
On 25th November his backpack drops by ~10 buds: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198060836883
BOA seems to have sold for clean Max (2.4), SF Scatter (3.3), SF Minigun (1), 3 buds pure and 8 keys (3.4) = 10.1 buds
Confirmed here in the seller's backpack: http://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198081002938
Enchando (the seller) has the Max, Strange festives, 3 buds and 8 keys that orginated from Lil Barack's backpack.
Trade 2
Trade was closed in September. Fire had current offers of 9 and 10 pure before sale: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14109311
Seller's backpack the day before sale: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198001634629?time=1378364400
Seller's backpack the day after sale: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198001634629?time=1378450800
The seller has an extra 9 earbuds in his backpack (increases from 94 pure in first link to 103 pure in second link). However none of these buds have Doge in the history.
Looking at Doge's backpack the day before the trade (http://backpack.tf/id/76561198032636421?time=1378364400) and the day after (http://backpack.tf/id/76561198032636421?time=1378450800), the only difference is the missing HOUWAR, accompanied by a drop in backpack value that equal's a HOUWAR (181.3 buds to 171.32 buds = 10 bud difference in today's prices).
So it appears that Fire accepted a HOUWAR and then resold it in the same day for 9 pure.
The value of a HOUWAR in early September was 11 buds (oddly, a HOUWAR suggestion was passed just the day before the trade took place changing the price from 11.5 to 11)
As these two sales are close in value and were sold for pure (and items that are easily converted into pure), price suggestion is 10.1-11 buds
Any problems or suggestions? Let me know.
Sorry for WALL OF TEXT but I like to be thorough.
Got offers of a burning swagman + tf logo beak, and a clean beams bonk already.
Also if you look at doge's old trades, I offered a KS phantom which he declined, the pe brotherhood was sold at that time, which I also sold the phantom for 7 pure + stormy tc (sold for 6) + stormy jefe (2 buds) + 16 keys: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15013586
You should also take a look at other offers as well.
If an admin tells me to consider offers then I will but I thought it best to only look at sales. And as you only bought the hat a few days ago I imagine that the price you paid applies. I wouldn't have submitted the price suggestion if the two sales weren't so close together in value.
Well, that wouldn't make sense, since I could accept the first offer which is already worth ~15 buds with overpay (x 0.9).
Here's some offers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14222930 --
(Massed flies cold killer = 12.5)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15581875
(Phos robo modest = 14)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15013586
(Knifestorm Phantom (sold mine for ~16)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15987005
(Burning swagman, later offered in chat the swagman and beak = 12 + 3 = 15)
(Clean beams bonk boy - has offers a lot higher than 12)
I'd suggest waiting until more sales came in, since almost every single offer on the peace brotherhood has been higher than this suggestion.
Well I'll leave it up and if it gets closed because of your evidence then that's fine. Someone else can use my evidence in a later suggestion if they like.
Offers are indeed worth taking into consideration when there's multiple higher than a couple of recent sales. In this case, it's something that can't be ignored.
Closing due to counterproof in comments. This is an item best given more time to see how future sales yet occur.