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Proof below. 3 month-old price.
This is actually an increase from the original suggested value.
Hardly any recent sales and some are impossible to track.
Sales:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15044603
-sold for 4 buds like he wanted, also seen here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15676370
-notable offers:
3.5 buds too low
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15676370
-wanted 5 buds
-brigade+power surge bubble (unpriced but around 5 if I were to take a guess)+roboactive slouch (4)+7 keys in items (0.43) bought clean cloudy hwnn (13.25): http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14619183
-leaving this sale around 4, but I'm not using this
Current trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14817619
-b/o of ~4.2 buds, nearly 2 months
-notable offers:
dp brigade+ts max=4.2
misty attendant=5.1, 1 bud above seller's b/o for 2 months, obvious outlier
beams vrh=4.2
ge pyromancer+sweets=4+
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15837074
-b/o of 5.5 buds, 1 week
-notable offers:
duped misty belt, unsure of value
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15866558
-notable offers:
c9 brigade=4.1
Notable trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14434855
-one of his trades in a set
-his older trade without the set: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14556973
-b/o of 4.3 buds
-notable offers:
o.f. pyromancer+g. fetti spartan+steaming degroot=4.2
4 buds accepted but fell through
Very few sales, most are old ones used in previous suggestion. Low end from some pure offers of 4 and a sale. High end is from 3 offers of 4.2. Regarding that trade with a b/o of 4.2 for 2 months, if he had accepted any of the 4.2 offers he had gotten he would have sold for his b/o. So it's not really 'unsold' since he already had people paying his b/o, just in unusuals. Very simple range from minimal proof. Unusual overpay and original prices used.