Your 1st trade B/O is 115 keys (~6.05, either 6 or 6.1) BUT he clearly says ~7 buds, he probably made a mistake with keys or so because it seems like he meant 7 buds and it's very recent and poorly bumped, might be a quicksell

Your 2nd trade closed the trade the minute he opened it so it wasn't really available (it also never sold...)

I don't think your range is correct since neither has sold, your 6.1 is probably 7 and your 7.5 was opened for less than a minute

Means nothing. Bought mine the other day for 10 buds in unusuals, you only have the other.

getting proof after school, on my phone.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14820682 - was traded for an entire bp - http://backpack.tf/id/76561198043821298?time=1385712000 and http://backpack.tf/id/76561198071508711?time=1385625600

Looks like that was ~7.4 in value, so maybe 6-6.5 after overpay since a lot of painted hats were involved and a total of almost 400 items were exchanged

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15782225 - offered on and sold for a scorching conn cap (no overpay) - http://backpack.tf/id/76561198043869505?time=1385452800 ~6.7

Was offered a scorching mancer after it sold ~7

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15024974 - sold for unpriced hats, but definitely much higher than 7 - looks like an outlier

As for revesilia's comment above, the b/o on the hat was 7.5, so that sale shouldn't be valued more than 7.5.

This range is probably close.... and definitely better than the current range.