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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16011280 offered and sold for a killawatt hallmark+added sweets, OFFERED so 5.3 buds with the sweets
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16135163 offered and sold for a timewarp Berliners+Purple energy hardcounter the person who sold it to him offered it during business class while we were talking so Jojo offered and moobs took it Moodic hat 3.9 hard counter 1.6 5.5
Sold for a Orbiting Planets Team Captain: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15699513 5.9
Should probably find more sales
Current trades:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16134401 (b/o 5 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16135154 (b/o 5.5 buds)
B/os are lower than your suggested range already.
The first one was a price and was bought for a miami HWAN which is a total outlier and jojo birdie bought it for the 5.5 offer
Did you calculate overpay?
Yea
5 isn't really an outlier
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15871469 - would accept stormy hallmark + max + buds ~5 - but the guy only offers the hallmark + max
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16159500 - b/o 5.3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16135154 - b/o 5.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16118389 - b/o 5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15943579 - from his comments, he might take 5 pure
We are making a push in general to calculate overpay on all hats as 0.9 * mid. Why? Well, 10 would not be sufficient overpay on a hat valued at 10-10.1 and 1 would be too much overpay on a hat valued at 1-5. It's the most consistent way to factor overpay. The TC (5.9-6.4) would be 5.5 after overpay and a number of willing sellers at 5-5.3 suggest that this range is too high.