Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used

Sales

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198084702048?time=1381474800 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198084702048?time=1381647600

Used for sale #1 and #2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1991302711 ---> http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1996117468

Phosphorous Gonzilla = 2.3 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1996117468 ---> http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,1997118182

Cauldron Hoodie + 5 keys (check first links for the keys) = 2.4 buds

Side note: Buds = 16 keys

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15987604 - Vivid Whoopee + 10 keys = 2.8 buds

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15976197

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198040860304?time=1385366400 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198040860304?time=1385539200

Beams Bombing Run + 7 keys = 3.2 buds

Side note: Taking mid price since it was offered on

Conclusion

Resuggesting due to apparent offers being constantly higher than the two lower sales, vote accordingly.

Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3