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New effects need prices!
6 in existence, 5 on the market
Current buyouts on the market range from 4-5 buds, with most offers in the 2.5-3 range.
1) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15850324 -> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15866402 (Nappers + 1 bud for Miami Nights Swagman’s, ~2.8 after overpay)
Bud: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15861056 (check) history if needed)
2) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15663964 -> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15849117 (Nappers for Blizz Tyrolean + Bill’s, ~2 (after overpay) + 6 keys = ~2.3)
3) http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15515930 -> http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15679574 (Nappers + sweets for Misty Skull Conquistador, ~4.7 after overpay) Definitely an outlier.
Sale #2:
Blizzard Tyrolean original price is 2 - 2.5, ~2 after overpay
Since buds were 16 keys at the time of the sale, Bills + 6 keys worth ~0.8
Total Sale: ~2.8
Perhaps 2.8 flat would be better
"~2 (after overpay) + 6 keys" is referring to just the Blizz Tyro and Bill's. 2 for the Blizz Tyro, 6 keys for the Bill's. No additional keys were added.
Oh, I didn't realize that, it'd be ~2.4 then, close enough to 2.3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15841282 - the nappers was offered, so no overpay should be calculated. Overpay is always applied to the offered hat - so the guy offering the nappers had to overpay. Technically we should calculate reverse overpay, but we just take hats at 1:1 values in these situations.
Last suggestion on the swagman was 4-4.5, so that sale is ~3.3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15604519 - again the nappers was offered here, so no overpay should be calculated
Conq price is 8 months old and shouldn't be used
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15371007 - sold for peace marauder but that has never been priced
Sales seem to be 3.3, 2.6