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Sold for Kill-a-Watt Gentleman's Ushanka
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15332394
-slick cut history: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2029574766
-ushanka history: http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2029574766
~
Sold for Smoking Conjurer's Cowl
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15357301
-before: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198042113269?time=1384416000
-after: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198042113269?time=1384502400
(outlier)
~
Sold for Aces High Surgeon's Stahlhelm
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15811683
(offer at bottom)
Sale #1:
Kill a Watt Gentleman's Ushanka original price is 3.4 - 4.7, ~3.2 after overpay
Total Sale: ~3.2
Sale #2:
Smoking Cowl original price is 1.5 - 1.7, ~1.4 after overpay
Total Sale: ~1.4 (outlier, also had an offer of Kill a Watt Armored Authority, higher than that for sure)
Sale #3:
Aces High Stahlhelm original price is 3.1 - 3.2, ~2.8 after overpay
From your sales range should be 2.8 - 3.2, I can't see where 2.5 comes from
Ushanka = 2.8
Stahlhelm = 2.5, that's where the range comes from.
Then you didn't use original prices, which you should do
Countersuggested this suggestion.
FYI
http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/4350-new-rule-use-original-suggested-values-of-unusuals/