Resuggesting with Polar Bear's help ;)

Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices

Sales

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15704526

PE Shako + SF Buff + 1 key + Kringle + Mutton, other guy added a Black All-Father & Black Hockey Hair = 2.6 buds (outlier)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15583218

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044096968?time=1385452800 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044096968?time=1385539200

Burning Topi + Pink All-father = 2.9 buds

Side note: Taking mid price of Topi since it was offered on

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15530617 - PE Jeep = 3.8 buds

Side note: Taking mid price since it was offered on

Proof from Bear, credits to him:

The low end is too low here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16161294 - quickbuyer is paying 2.7 pure

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15610600 - unpriced hat

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14237470 - burning topi + 2-10 keys in sweets; unclear how many 2.9-3.4 - this was on the market for 2 months with high offers peaking at 3-3.5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15450431 - offered 3.3 pure, scorching robin ~3.6

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15425819 - multi-hat trade

Current Trades:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16237040 - B/O 3.3

I think there are enough other trades around 3 that the range could be 2.9-3.9. But if there is a quickbuyer at 2.7, 2.6 for the low end just seems too low

Conclusion

Adjusting the range according to Bear's recommendations. Credits to him for finding the rest of da proof. Vote accordingly.

Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3