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Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used
Sales
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198068121636?time=1385884800 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198068121636?time=1386057600
Sale #1: Looks like he traded 35 keys for it = 1.8 buds
Sale #2: 3.4 buds-worth of stuff (outlier)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14341958 - PE L'inspecteur = 2,5 buds
Side note: Taking mid price since it was offered on. A bit dated, but I need some extra proof :/
Conclusion
Not too sure about this one, but we'll see how this goes :3 Vote accordingly.
Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3
3 have been on the market for 2+ months with only 1 offer higher than 2.5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16158398
MN raincatcher + 8 keys ~2.8
And the raincatcher honestly has an ancient price - flat price from when it first came out