Flaming lantern one-man army (original value: 2.2-2.8 buds, set more than a year ago. Changed over time to 1.8-2.3 buds, which actually isn’t too different from my suggested value of 1.7-2.2 buds)

Original ID: 1203987473

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10733432 (Had a trade open from May 11th through to December 3rd. Recently got two offers, one being 2 buds and the other was a green confetti Hat with no name. Owner rejected those offers. Couldn’t find any time caches on bp.tf confirming the guy who offered two buds had them in his backpack)

http://backpack.tf/stats/631/5/6 (2-2.2 buds HWNN)

It seems that the one-man army was traded for a blizzard storm HWNN, I don’t think either party added anything.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16165512

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198040928520?time=1385625600 (last date on bp.tf seen with OMA)

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198040928520?time=1386057600 (A few days later with HWNN)

http://backpack.tf/stats/631/5/30 (2-2.2 buds, last updated 7 months ago)

Original ID: 1202391886

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12425751 (In early October the owner indicated that he would have accepted 30 keys in reply to the guy with a trollface profile picture. Buds were 18-19 keys back then so it probably puts the asking price around 1.7 buds. Still has the hat but no longer has that buyout listed in his current trade)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15968049 (Hid an offer of a haunted ghosts capotain)

Summary: Only one recent sale I could find, but it isn’t a new unusual + effect so I think it doesn’t break any guidelines. Pretty sure the HWNN isn’t worth more than 2.4 buds, wanted to update it but too much of a pain for me.