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Needs a slight drop down.14 pages on tf2outpost, will not be counting trades which include paint or craft numbers.
Lots of unsolds at 3.33 ref. Solds at 3 ref seem to be much more common than 3.33 ref. Thus, suggesting a price suggestion of 3 ref flat.
[PROOF]
------------------------------[SELLERS]------------------------------
3 ref:
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15620338[/url]
[url]http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9929689[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16254939[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16259878[/url]
------------------------------[UNSOLDS]------------------------------
3.33 ref:
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16028309[/url] - 1 week old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16212235[/url] - 3 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15914536[/url] - 2 week old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16214757[/url] - 3 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16146350[/url] - 6 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16219479[/url] - 2 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16248705[/url] - 1 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16277945[/url] - 1 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16164559[/url] - 5 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16285649[/url] - 1 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16284618[/url] - 1 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16254634[/url] - 1 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16185651[/url] - 4 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258790[/url] - 1 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16217101[/url] - 2 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16215975[/url] - 3 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16221844[/url] - 2 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16287245[/url] - 1 day old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16093045[/url] - 1 week old trade
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16270124[/url] - 1 day old trade
------------------------------[SOLDS]------------------------------
3 ref:
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16249245[/url]
[url]http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9929611[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16252966[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16253627[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16254149[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16254675[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16255909[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16256915[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258628[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16269740[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16269877[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16271307[/url]
[url]http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9931324[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16277466[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16278200[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16279520[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16288652[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16289816[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16292513[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16293488[/url]
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16293922[/url]
------------------------------[QUICKSELLS]------------------------------
2.66 ref:
[url]http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258833[/url]
------------------------------[CLASSIFIEDS]------------------------------
[url]http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52002f9b4bd7b8e46900001c[/url]
- 2 at 3 ref
- 3 at 3.33 ref (up to 4 days old)
- Rest above 3.33 are painted / involve craft numbers
Good proof, upvote (/._.)/ also could ya make the proof's colot font darker, its hurtin mah eyes :P
i'm sorry, but could you please remove the unbumped unsolds? i clicked the first 3 links and i got trades opened 1 week ago, with 10-20 views. nobody will be able to sell anything like this.
also, what's the point of 3 ref sellers/solds? 3 ref is already in range
------------------------------[UNSOLDS]------------------------------
3.33 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16028309 - 1 week old trade - not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16212235 - 3 day old trade - not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15914536 - 2 week old trade - not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16214757 - 3 day old trade - not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16146350 - 6 day old trade - inactive for 4 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16219479 - 2 day old trade - bumped 2 days ago
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16248705 - 1 day old trade - unbumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16277945 - 1 day old trade - could be valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16164559 - 5 day old trade - poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16285649 - 1 day old trade - unbumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16284618 - 1 day old trade - unbumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16254634 - 1 day old trade - poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16185651 - 4 day old trade - 35 views in 4 days - poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258790 - 1 day old trade - poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16217101 - 2 day old trade - same trader as above
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16215975 - 3 day old trade - again the same trader
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16221844 - 2 day old trade - poorly bumped + 1 add comment
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16287245 - 1 day old trade - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16093045 - 1 week old trade - 29 views in one week...
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16270124 - 1 day old trade - valid
so, based on your proof, this does NOT need a drop.
I feel bad for this misc (I've dropped it a few times already as you can see). I don't want it to become a "free rep" kind of suggestion from people constantly suggesting it lower and lower. Already there was a suggestion earlier this week with sloppy proof: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52a4b5aa4dd7b81b6b8b4568
Your Invalid Proof:
3 ref sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15620338 - Outdated trade plus no indication of what it sold for.
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9929689 - Unbumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16259878 - Unbuped
3.33 ref unsolds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16028309 - Poorly bumped (hasn't been for 5 days)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16212235 - No bump
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15914536 - 3 week old trade with only 18 views and a bump from 3 days ago? Methinks bad bumps
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16214757 - Not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16146350 - Poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16219479 - Poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16248705 - Poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16277945 - Barely a day old
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16164559 - Poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16285649 - Not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16284618 - Not bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258790 - Poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16217101 - Poorly bumped
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16215975 - Poorly bumped
Have to go, sorry for quick glance at proof. I'll be back to evaluate the rest.
For now though, I can see that you don't have very good unsold proof. I'll be back to check your sold proof.
Here's just to "re-edit what you said wasn't proof"
From what you said:
3 ref sellers:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15620338 - Under sellers as if you check, its still in his bp
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16259878 - 2 days old, still quite valid under bp.tf price suggesting rules
3.33 ref unsolds:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16212235 - Still valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15914536 - Still valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16214757 - Still valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16146350 - Poorly bumped? Bumped 2 days ago? Still valid under bp.tf rules.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16219479 - 1 day bumped ago is not valid? Not sure where you're getting that from mate
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16277945 - Unsold, bumped 7 hrs. ago, closed trade, still in his bp
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16164559 - Was bumped 23 hrs. ago if you check
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16285649 - Still valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16284618 - Bumped 3 hrs. ago obviously valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258790 - Bumped 21 hrs. ago, valid
There's a reason why I put the proof there in the first place, cuz I checked it first. Almost all of the "poorly bumped" trades you mentioned were actually valid. I don't know where you found that no bump for a few hrs = invalid proof. Trades take time and you have to constantly check up on it, you don't know, the trader could have been asleep so he couldn't bump it. It doesn't mean that the person didn't bump it for a few hrs. or a day doesn't mean it's immediately invalid proof.
All multiple day old trades that haven't been bumped since they were posted tell you, is that that price is not a quicksell. If it isn't bumped, then it doesn't gain attention. If it doesn't gain attention, it can't be influenced by the competitive market, and therefore can't be judged properly.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16259878 - 2 day old trade not bumped once - Not valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16212235 - 3 day old trade not bumped once - Not valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16214757 - 3 day old trade not bumped once - Not valid
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16146350 - this one I accidentally kept in, meant to remove this link
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16219479 - Over 3 days, and bumped as far as 1 day ago kind of tells us that the person doing the trade hasn't really cared much for bumping. View count is 21.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16277945 - Bumped two hours after trade was started, then never bumped again before being closed. How is that valid? Also it was reopened again here: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16302475 where it hasn't been bumped for the entirety of its existence.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16164559 - Sloppy bumping, while not against the rules, I don't consider good proof. Over an entire week, they've gained a total of 19 views, which implies it wasn't bumped very often.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16285649 - Sold for backpack.tf price?...
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16284618 - It's really young, that's the problem.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258790 - Sloppy bumping. Only open for 2 days and bumped 18 hours ago. Less than 20 views.
In conclusion, yes, no bump for a few hrs = invalid proof when the trade is less than a day old. I also only said invalid if it was for DAYS and the trade was less than a week old. It goes up exponentially, etc.
I'm sure with an item as common as this, there are more well bumped trades than the ones you listed. Some of these look just skimmed off of trade.tf, tbh.
Now the invalid sold proof:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16249245 - Sold in less than an hour, check the time stamp - Quicksell
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9929611 - Repeated link from sellers
http://www.tf2outpost.com/user/165087 - Trade was closed immediately... Probably sold outside of TF2OP
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16254149 - Sold within an hour - Quicksell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16254675 - Added within 2 hours, check the comments - Quicksell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16255909 - This doesn't tell us anything about how it was sold. It's a two day old trade with closed items. Did it sell instantly? Did it sell only yesterday? How are we supposed to know?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258628 - Sold within 40 minutes
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16269740 - Trade was closed immediately, doesn't tell us anything
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16269877 - Another case of ambiguity
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16271307 - Quicksell
http://tf2tp.com/trade.php?trade=9931324 - Closed? They used a fake name, and never took it off, so they sold it elsewhere, not for the Tossle.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16277466 - Quicksell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16278200 - Quicksell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16279520 - Quicksell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16288652 - Closed immediately
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16289816 - Closed immediately
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16292513 - Sold within a half hour - Quicksell
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16293488 - Ambiguity
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16293922 - Closed immediately
Sloppy sold proof, need more non-quicksells, actual trades (not closed immediately) at 3 ref.
How can 3 ref be a quicksell when its part of the lower end of the price.
The only reason I'm suggesting 3 ref is because it seems to be the price buyers are looking for and sellers are selling for. (You can see above the solds at 3 ref)
I'm not trying to use some weird logic here, I'm showing you that your proof showed 3 ref sold fast. A quicksell is a quicksell no matter the current price.
3 ref sells way too fast to be considered it's regular price. 3.00-3.33 is fine for now.
I guess so :'(
Though 3.33 doesn't sell / is hard to sell.
:P
Well, give it a few days. All the fresh unsolds will be ripe for picking. Everything will be a lot better at least 11 days after the last suggestion ;)
Hard to make a new one so quickly, tbh
Agree there mate.
The other commenters have already pointed out the issues with the proof; current range seems fine