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Resuggesting as recommended by Bear
Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used
Sales
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044448294?time=1376809200 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044448294?time=1376982000
3 painted BMOC's + 6 keys worth in items = 1.7 buds (outlier)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13738086
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044448294?time=1376722800 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198044448294?time=1376809200
2.5 buds-worth of stuff
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198077727511?time=1376895600 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198077727511?time=1376982000
2 buds + 4 keys = 2.2 buds
Offers (thanks to Bear for this counter-proof)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14715176 -
Offers:
Aces Stahl + 6 keys ~3
Cauldron Noir (old price but surely at your high end here)
Miami Birdcage ~2.7
Conclusion
All sales are 3 months old, but these are all the sales I could possibly find. Resuggesting as there have also been some higher offers. Vote accordingly.
Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3