I could literally only find 4 valid sales within the past 3 days:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16360088 - 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16349245 - 3 ref

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16325679 - 3.66

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16243873 - 4 ref (also offered a TOD ticket - 3.33 -but declined)

As for those currently selling:

There are lost of tryhards at 1 key which are obviously not successful given the amount of those selling for less (and that one 4 ref sale might also be an outlier given the unsolds at higher than 3)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16356840 - 2.33 (1 day - rarely active on op according to seller, perhaps an outlier)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16349198- 3.33 (1 day)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16352137 - 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16363554 - 3 hours (young)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16344387 - 1 day

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16295861 - 3 days

But classifieds is oddly different:

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52a2653c4cd7b8b31a8b4587

Cheapest there is goes for 4.66

It should also be noted that the median of the sales on the steam market is $0.61