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5 months old price. Not much demand on this, the most recent sale that I could find was 3 months ago at 1.66 ref.
Selling for 0.77 ref (outlier):
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16258713
Selling for 1.66 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16122593
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16076571 - 1 week
Sold for 1.66 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14212426 - 3 months ago
Selling at 2 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16332515 - 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16247708 - 6 days
Selling at 2.33 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15171351 - 1 month
To me, 0.77 isn't really an outlier. You have only 1 sale at 1.66, so your 0.77 is just as valid.
Eh not really. That 0.77 ref trade was never bumped since it opened 5 days ago and gained 22 views with 1 bookmark with the seller being inactive. I wouldn't count it as valid, there's a possibility that it might've been sold quickly if the seller was active.
Yeah I guess you are right, it seems that way. It's pretty hard to know though, more sales wouldn't hurt your suggestion but I understand they are very hard to come by. But it certainly does need a drop, upboot!!