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Im trying to fix a first value.
I had bought one for 23 keys + 1 ref: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16116905 .
No doubt that was a quicksell.
Then i were collecting offers which concentrated around 2 buds.
At least i sold it for 1 bud + 21 keys pure: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16233435 .
It was just 1 of 2 on the market, which was only 2 times sold in the last 6 month. Its not a lot of proof, but to fix a first value it should be enough.
You need two solds though to set a price the first time on new hats and effects. If you count your purchase of it as a QS, then you only have one sold being your 1 bud 21 keys.
As indicated, all suggestions establishing a range for new hats require two defined sales to establish a range. Only one usable sale here setting the range. Will need at least one more to confirm the range