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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16239944 sold for offer (5.8)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16291453 // http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16405486 claims to have paid 6 (confirmed here http://puu.sh/5S24Q.png )
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14769200 unpriced
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16391428 qs for 4
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16235073 ~5.2 (outlier)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15639612 unpriced
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15717235 // http://puu.sh/5S2O3.png ~5.6
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16466242 - burning birdcage (8.2-9) + this hat for a burning tower (11-13) + what sweets?
Also, 5.2 isn't so far away from the other sales, it can be part of the range. 4 obviously is an outlier.
The 5.2 outlier is really 5.5 after overpay (stormy veil 3.6 + smoking brainiac 1.9). So 3 sales at 5.5, 5.6, 5.8
Accepting as better than current. Low end currently is definitely way off and this is probably close