http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16466242 - burning birdcage (8.2-9) + this hat for a burning tower (11-13) + what sweets?

Also, 5.2 isn't so far away from the other sales, it can be part of the range. 4 obviously is an outlier.

The 5.2 outlier is really 5.5 after overpay (stormy veil 3.6 + smoking brainiac 1.9). So 3 sales at 5.5, 5.6, 5.8

Accepting as better than current. Low end currently is definitely way off and this is probably close