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Needs a drop.
[proof below]
Sellers/solds at 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16580277 - 3.66 - sold
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16551348 - 4
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16497551 - 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16080470 - 4.33 (last bumped 2 days ago)
Unsolds at 4.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16611981 - 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16594668 - 2 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16415485 - 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15397806 - 1 month
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14168193 - 3 months
Only 2 pages on outpost (page 3 is all unbumped) and many of them are painted or the sellers are highballing.
Feel free to add more proof, inform me about double/invalid links and give feedback.
2 of the unsolds are already closed, and sold.
Even if that's true, one of the trades was still up for 3 months, the guy was probably lucky
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16760364 3 craft hat ( 3.99)
Thanks for adding additional proof :)
More proofs.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16761689 - 4.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16746179 - 4