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Overpay callculated (*0.9):
http://i.imgur.com/J7IXgsF.png - sold for Samur Eye with Nuts & Bolts~16 keys
http://i.imgur.com/se4J5bl.png - bought for Brain Bucket with Smoking~12 keys
B/O: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16163030 - 18 keys - no offers
Your 12 keys sale is over 4 months old. Downvote.
Brain Bucket price was not change.
12 key sale actually happened exactly 3 months ago. Eh. It is kinda old, but not much to go by here. Another one with a b/o of 1 buds sold for steam games, it seems.
Issue here really is that the bucket would actually be 13.5 keys after overpay since the original price on it was 15 keys flat - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5274d7ff4dd7b8c35d8b4568
This suggestion should be 14-16