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Counter-suggestion: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52ba5dc24cd7b8746f8b45de - No reason 13 keys shouldn't be in range
Original valued of unusuals used and overpay applied when necessary. Bud/key prices what they were time of sale
Proof #1
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16666843
Sold for: 2 Painted Bill's (both sold for 12.6 keys) and a key in other items
Total: ~13.6 keys
Proof #2
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15853868 - Sold in a day?
Sold with 4.5 keys for: PFetti Outdoorsman (~13 keys)
Total: ~8.5 keys - Outlier. 12 keys comes from...?
Proof #3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13976645
Sold for: Stormy Pith (~15) + Festive Grenade Launcher (~0.5?)
Total: 13 keys - Was the guys Buyout
Proof #4
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14924574
Sold for:
13 keys. $42.23 in Market funds. Had offer of 12 keyshttp://postimg.org/image/mg3kxjchj/
https://encrypted.google.com/search?hl=en&q=31%2C05%20euro%20in%20usd#hl=en&q=31.05+euro+in+usd
Total: ~18 keys o.o
Extra
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15104699 - Offered a Nuts Bombing (~10)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15700950 - Sold for 10 in a day
Conclusion
Tell me again why this should go down? 3 on Autpost. One for (price) 13 keys - unbumped, one for (buyout of) 14 keys and another with no price. Anything below 11 keys seem to sell very fast. With overpay applied, the solds that Avery says are 11 and 12 keys are actually 10 or lower. Any Extra Proof/Cunter-Proof/Opinions/Tips/Help is all welcome. Thanks for reading. Feedback is always appreciated.
All my upvotes go to this suggestion.
i tried and looked abit into the outdoorsman http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52c00ec04dd7b83b038b4568
came out with a sale at 16, a bud and 20.
average would be 18 and 16.2 with overpay
substract 4.5 from it would make it 11.7, so ~12 keys
at proof #3
his buyout was actually 14 keys in refined as keys were 6.22 at the time.
87 divided by 6.22 is 13.98.
so a sale at 12, 13.6 and 14, i'd say 12-14 would make a better range.
also at proof #4
i'm not sure if we go with the price the buyer paid (with TF2 fee) or what the seller got (without tf2 fee)
if without it would be 17 keys, still an outlier but just worth noting for future references.
Can't have a 12-14 key range though, since there is a guy with a Buyout of 13?
i only see one with a b/o of 14, the one with the b/o of 13 was the one you linked as sold for the 2 bills + a key in items, which is a sale at 13 then.
with my own suggestions i never really look at current buyouts and most of them passed.
i just feel 12-14 would be better, even tho it does have the same average (+ bucket doesn't like flat prices)