New item, price will fluctuate a bunch before it settles down. There are a lot of sellers/buyers out there for under 4 ref but still a handful at 4 ref.

PROOF

Sellers/Sold under 4 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16790214 (3 Ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16782048 (3.66 Ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16764858 (3 Ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16776539 (3 Ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16673619 (3.88 Ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16765521 (3 Ref or offers)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16769338 (3.66 Ref)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16784048 (3 Ref)

http://bazaar.tf/trade/610204 (3 Ref)

http://bazaar.tf/trade/606891 (3 Ref)

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52b4b22e4dd7b8b9218b4567

(x2 @ 3.66; x1 @ 3.55; x3 @ 3.33; x4 @ 3)

Sellers at 4 ref:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16736060

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16756410

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16750251

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16731757

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16794362 x2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16792314

http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52b4b22e4dd7b8b9218b4567

(Handful on here for 4 ref; bumped regularly)

As you can see, this item has dropped a bit since the last accepted suggestion, though that price is still achievable lower is becoming more and more common.

Feel free to post more proof or counter-proof and thanks for voting!!