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Festive item has been dropping since release, very few sellers at 5 ref as they know no one buys it at that price anymore.
PROOF
Sellers/Sold under 4 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16806340 (3.66)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16714212 (3.33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16808518 (3.33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16796747 (3 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16783638 (3.66)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16809127 (3 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16790240 (3.33)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16806980 (3.88; dropped price from 4.66)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16807798 (3 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16685469 (3.88)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16806830 (would take 3.66-4; if in good mood)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16799190 (3.88)
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52b497e94dd7b8306a8b4567
(x4 @ 3.66; x1 @ 3.55; x1 @ 3.44; x1 @ 3.22; x2 @ 3)
Sellers/Sold at 4 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16806391
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16755102 (x2)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16802771
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16786043 (x5)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16804970
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16805985
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16755616
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16801472
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52b497e94dd7b8306a8b4567
(x9 @ 4 ref; only a few higher than that that are being bumped)
Unsold above 5 ref:
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16800113 (7 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16771899 (1 day)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16759759 (1 day)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16758567 (4.66; 1 day)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16787560 (4.66; 16 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16798826 (9 hours)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16768203 (1 day)
Feel free to add more proof or counter-proof if you find any and thanks for voting!!
I don't believe you have any unsolds at the current range : therefore the unsolds over 5 ref can only insure that 5 ref should be out of the range, but not 4-5 ref. You need unsolds at 4 ref too to take 4 out of the range
More proof for lower end of range please
Doing so, if you come across any please post it
iam selling my chucklenuts for 3 ref
More proof for low end:
http://bazaar.tf/trade/609537 (3 ref)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16804896 (3 ref)
If anyone finds more, please post it. I'll continue looking as well.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16811117 - 3 ref :)