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Ew, this range.
2.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16882274
3 ref
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16865723 - painted
3.33
http://backpack.tf/classifieds/search/id/52016e404bd7b8571300000d - 1 classified for 3.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16854874
4 ref unsolds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16789247 - 3 days
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16787043 - 3 days bp.tf price
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16136776 - 4 weeks
Crappy proof, limited market.
Feel free to counter / support my proof. Vote based on proof presented, not blindly!
I think your first link edited his notes.
Four refined doesn't look supported from what you've posted, but why not post the range in 3 refined?