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Overpay callculated (*0.9):
http://i.imgur.com/J7IXgsF.png - sold for Samur Eye with Nuts & Bolts~17 keys (that was 19 keys, when i sold it)
http://i.imgur.com/se4J5bl.png - bought for Brain Bucket with Smoking~14 keys (that was 15 keys, when i bought it)
B/O: http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16163030 - 18 keys - no offers
Typically I would say use original suggested values of unusuals when calculating, but since the prices are in keys, I think it'll be alright
Issue here is more that the sammy has an 11 month old price. Looking at the market, most b/o's are at 18, but there are interested buyers and offers in the 16-18 range. A range here of 14-16 might be better to conservatively value the sam, but this is close.