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2 sales.
http://alcoholoffame.imgur.com/all/
Sold for a Non-duped Max's Head (2.4 buds at the time of the sale) + (gifted) Strange Festive Rocket Launcher, which was 1.5 buds at the time of the sale. A Festive Knife was added, (buds were 16 keys at the time) so that would add .1 buds to the total sale.
2.4 buds + 1.5 buds + .1 buds = 5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12143200
Sold for a Smoking Hottie's Hoodie, 3 buds, and 12 keys. At the time of this sale Buds were 24 keys. (Original Price of the Hoodie at the time of the sale:) 1.9-2.3 = 2.1 buds + 3 buds + .5 buds = 5.6 buds
Since the second sale is so old, could you provide some offers to show these are still as popular?
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/12257359 offered Scorching Handle + PE Pot ~ 5.5 buds, that was 11 hours ago.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15439170 Same person offered, seller is considering.
If you look through the other offers on other trades, the hat tends to receive offers of roughly 5 buds, I'd say this is pretty accurate.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13591204 - this hat + p.fetti snaggle (1.3-1.5) + 9 keys for scorching fez (7-8)
Kinda old trade, fits in the range as well.