Counter-suggestion: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/52c6e3404cd7b8066c8b45a3 -

Original values of unusuals used and overpay applied when necessary. Buds and keys at what they were time of sale

Proof #1

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16324920

Sold + SF Scatter (3) for Aces Noble Nickel (~4.5) + Max Head (2.2)

Total: ~3.7 buds

Proof #2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16562632

Sold + Nuts Noir (~0.6) for a DP Headsplitter (~5.9)

Total: ~5.3 buds - Outlier

Proof #3

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16435964

Sold + Hearts Stovepipe (~2.9) for GBH Reggae (No price)

Total: iunno

Proof #4

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16381020

Sold for Kill-a-Watt Tavish Crown (~3.5) + minor sweets

Total: ~3.6 buds

Currently on Outpost: 2

http://www.tf2outpost.com/search/180736110

One wants 5 buds, which even more so proves that 5 buds is an Outlier

The other was unboxed and is looking for offers

Conclusion

Unlike Cyborg, I used mid price * 0.9, which is considered to be a better overpay factor than just taking the low-end - He did, but didn't look like it. There have been more sales around 3.5-4 buds and another on Outpost is looking for 5 buds, hence why 5.3 is an outlier. Nothing much more to say. Any Extra Proof/Cunter-Proof/Opinions/Tips/Help is all welcome. Thanks for reading. Feedback is always appreciated.