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http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16253404 sold for Macho Mann + S. Direct Hit (~1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16724612 sold for 1.5 keys
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16280716 sold for kringle + scotland cape (~1.5 keys), also offer of clean S.Foppish Physician (1.5 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16984214 selling for Key + 2 ref (~1.3 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16192420 selling for Key + 2 ref (~1.3 keys)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16609184 Offered Highland Heels, Carbonado Rocket Launcher, G.Quackenbirdt and G.Stove Pipe (~2.1 keys, outlier, probably retracted)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16762545 Selling for a Key, interested buyer.
1 page of these on outpost, most are painted.
There's only one seller for one key, so I didn't include it in the range. It's not sold after a week though, so I'd like to hear opinions if 1-1.5 would be a better range.
More proof/counterproof/opinions appreciated.