Suggestion: Refined Metal at $0.29–$0.30

It is apparent that the sales are erratic. TF2Outpost caters to very casual trading. If we were to only go off of tf2oupost listings then $.30 flat would be somewhat appropriate. But SourceOP shows a different story...

SOURCE OP

All 10+ In-stock refined cash trades (since 1/1/14).

$0.25

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/154839-Keys-USD-1-75-Refs-USD-0-25 30+

$0.26

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/155069-Keys-1-82-Buds-36-Ref-0-26 50+

$0.27

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/155027-Ref-0-27-each-Keys-1-80-each 30+

$0.28

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/151901-Refined-Metal-0-28 70+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/130215-Keys-1-85-1-36%80-each-Refined-0-28-0-20%80-each 200+

$0.29

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/154109-Refined-0-29-or-%C2%A30-19-Keys-1-85-or-%C2%A31-10 30+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/154818-Dota2-keys-1-85-ea-%282%29-Bill-s-Hat-%28Pink%29-9-50-Refined-0-29-ea 40+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/128671-Keys-1-85-USD-Refineds-0-29-USD-Buds-35-00-USD 10+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/153223-SELLING-Refined-0-29-each 400+

$0.30

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/152551-Refined-at-0-30-usd 200+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/149163-Refined-%28%C2%A30-18%29-Keys-%28%C2%A31-25%29-Earbuds-%28%C2%A323%29 50+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/153876-Schwegs-Shop-3-Yrs-of-Rep!-Ref-Festives-Unusuals-More!-Entire-bp-must-go! 100+

$0.31 - $0.33

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/153335-40-keys-1-83-usd-300-ref-0-31-usd $0.31 - 300+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/153982-Keys-Ref-Buds-Paypal-Verified-amp-Have-Decent-Reps-4-Years-of-Steam $0.32 - 10+

$0.33 +

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/154986-ref-%28x37%29-0-33-USD-%28-fees%29 $0.33 - 30+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/154460-Keys-Refs-Buds $0.37 - 30+

http://forums.sourceop.com/threads/143506-Keys-and-refined-metal-for-paypal $0.40 - 10+

Number of Listings for Under $0.30 = 9

Number of Listings for Exactly $0.30 = 3

Number of Listings for Over $0.30 = 3 (listings above .32 not included because of outlying sales)

Conclusion:

Here we can see that there are 2x as many listings for $.30 cents and under as there are for over $.30. If we remove outliers, under 30 cents beats out over 30 cents 4.5:1! This is because with keys worth about 7 refined and $1.85, the price of refined certainly cannot sustain itself above 30 cents. On SOP, it is not even worth it to sell refined above 30 cents since you can get refined for under 27 cents each if you go indirectly and buy keys and everbody on sourceop knows it!

If we were to only go off of SOP listings, it would be very clear that $.28-$.30 is the dominant range with $.29 being the average.

Final Conclusion:

SourceOP is the most popular cash trading website while TF2Outpost is the overall most popular trading website.

Using the average we find from both sites, $.29-$.30 seems to be the most accurate range.

How did you suggest for australium refined metal again?

it was a bug, brad fixed it :)

Just want to emphasize a point that gets raised frequently in counterproof on these suggestions (that Jon also mentions here). People will always sell for above and below bp.tf price. If the price is set at .30, there will be sales at .28 just as there are at .32. Our goal is to inform the community what the most common trade point is, not to provide an all-encompassing range that accounts for every sale. If that was the case, this would be .26-.33

Please keep that in mind before voting.

Again, I'll emphasize that sellers will always sell for above and below bp.tf price. Yes there are sales at 32-33 just as there are sales at 25. This doesn't mean the range should be 25-33. 29-30 seems the most commonly traded price for refined.

In stock:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17048167 - 25

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16681684 - 25

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16755560 - 28

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16128822 - 28

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16205646 - 28

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16892209 - 28

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16142610 - 28

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16780426 - 29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16804258 - 29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/10319745 - 29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15890636 - 29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15565942 - 29

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16413658 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17062987 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16097374 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16669246 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15824878 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16787564 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16184073 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16103352 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17022614 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16664630 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16755331 - 30

Willing sellers that are recently out of stock:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14929000 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15125741 - 30

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15471045 - 30

There are actually quite a lot of sellers at 28 too. But there are some successful sellers at 32 to counter. This range is clearly better than the current range.

~~A Big chunk of your top proof links are broken.~~

Fixed!

That was on purpose but I just removed them.

Please fix the links. A lot of them are broken.

Pulling the gear at neutral until then.

That was on purpose but I just removed them.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/9843921 seller's been offline for 38 days

not a big deal but pointing it out

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16928744 - Bumped/Offline 3 days ago

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15890636 - Offline 2 days http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16681684 - Offline 7 days, only just bumped

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16732843 - Trade closed

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16669246 - Offline 2 days

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15565942 - SteamREP caution

No steamrep caution (any longer?) on the lst link.

Time to find some errors...

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16804258 --> Actually sold some. Claimed he had 58 refined at the time of the posting, currently have 44.66 ref.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16928744 --> Clearly mentions he is quickselling, also he has not bumped his trade for 3 days.

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15890636 ---> Has around 5-6 adds during the course of 1 month.

Eh, overall you have few errors but yeah, lots of sellers at .29

~~~

Still keeping the gear at neutral (Have to re-check and will wait for some more comments, see if anyone comes up with support/counter-proof.

Why did you put .32 and .33 if they are not in your range? -_-

because if I didnt, you would accuse me of not showing proof of .32-.33 sales.

The whole I am trying to put across is that the average price of refined is $.29-$.30 depending on what site you buy from.

So are you accepting that it is still possible at .32 And .33 And even more? I'll do some research when I got some free time.

yes, but I am also accepting that it is possible at .25 and .26 and im accepting the fact that you can buy a key for 1.89, sell it for 7 refined and pay only .27 each

.29 - .30 is the best average I could come up with

One day, refineds are going to be worth a mexican coin.

If you want to look like a smart ass, do it somewhere else. By the way, the term you are looking for is Peso, idiot.

This cuts the overall value of tf2 items by ~3.5% but upblout :3 Saw someone offering refined for 0.28 earlier today (like 20 ref) it definately should be in the range.