Resuggesting as Bear recommended

Proof below. Overpay calculated. Original prices used

Sales

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198030458806?time=1387180800 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198030458806?time=1387353600

Roughly a Stormy Connoisseur's + Misty Dogger = 4.5 buds

http://backpack.tf/id/76561198014610344?time=1378450800 ---> http://backpack.tf/id/76561198014610344?time=1378796400

16 keys + Lvl 78 Max = 3.2 buds (outlier)

Bear's Proof:

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16935836 - AF tree; looks like 1:1 - http://backpack.tf/id/76561197988411165?time=1388736000

Shouldn't be valued more than 6 with that b/o - outlier?

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16683195 - flies PE, steaming bonk, hearts ketch? - 4.8ish - new suggestion of private eye seems like it should be 1.5-2.2; i'll grant you that the ketch price is 7 months old but this sale is likely above 4.5. probably close to 5

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16452522 - unpriced stuff

I'd probably call both 3.2 and 6 outliers and price this at ~4.5-5

Help / Constructive Criticism / Additional Proof / Counter-Proof is ALWAYS welcome! >;3