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5 month old price, needs a drop.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17097789 - Quicksold at 3.33
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17079142 - 3.66, 1 day
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16138987 - 3.66, 1 month
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15624895 - 2 recent adds at 3.66
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16739352 - 3.88, 1 week
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16543675 - Offered 4 ref in comments, 2 weeks
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16610764 - 4.00, 2 weeks
The rest of these are painted or the trades are not relevant.
There is a young sale on classified for 4 ref, so, I thought to share to this suggestion.
Upvote, on the basis that the price is a bit outdated and the evidence is supportive.
Darn, just got a black one as sweets a few days ago :p
Anyways, http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17079142 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16739352 is the same person just different trade. Other than that everything else looks good. Upvote.