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Original suggested values used.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16738824
SOLD: Aces High Lucky Shot
(3.3 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2209262758,701,5
-counting this as an outlier, outdated price anyways
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17138660
SOLD: TF Logo Towering Pillar
(2.7 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2137844064,135,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16712286 -NOT a quicksell
SOLD: Vintage Bills + 1 bud
(2.4 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2208204787,126,3
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2208432074,143,6
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16399902
SOLD: Dead Presidents Mirror
(outdated price, most likely less than 2.8 buds)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2200521366,104,5
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15197006
SOLD: Gifted Sunbeams Beret
(2.8 buds counting gifted status)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/item/440,2130128522,180,5
It was actually offered on the tower, so that's ~3.2 (no overpay). Seems like an outlier honestly given the b/o's at 2.5.
Gifted hats shouldn't be used as proof in the absence of a mini-suggestion justifying their value.
Still, even if there are 3 iffy sales for the high end, offers support this range as well. This is probably close.