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[Proof below] Updating. Last suggestion was only a few weeks back right before the bud storage so updating this with more refreshed proof.
Sold trades
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17193241
sold for a cloud 9 hat of cards ~5 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16605354
sold for green energy full metal drill hat +2 buds ~4.2 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16082564
Sold for 130 euros on steam market~4.4 buds
***according to Wolifi i should take 1.75€ per key since steam market.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16907965
Lvl 1 Max Head + P.Energy Beret and the seller added 8 keys~ min 4 buds
****PE beret hasnt been updated for ages (currently ~3.5) but sale is min 4 buds (being a bit lenient by taking the berat at 2.5 tho)
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15660625
sold for searing phantom + bud~4 buds
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15580512
Sold for 4 buds?
- rejected 4 buds but seems like he changed his mind or added sweets bp history doesnt really show anything extra :S
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198030462768?time=1385280000
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198030462768?time=1385452800
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198074655901?time=1385625600
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14844155
Seems to have sold for 4 buds
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198063472871?time=1382857200
http://backpack.tf/id/76561198063472871?time=1382770800
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16445260
Qs for 3.3 buds
please tell me if im doing anything wrong or if im missing anything :)
Great proof, upvote :$
Why not 4-4.4?
Most of the 4 buds sales were from duped berets but it's still better than current price and also many rejected offers in current trades around around 4 buds and higher so i elected to keep the 5 bud sale as well (also 4.4 is close enough to consider 5), also downplayed the 4th link by quite a bit too the pe beret probably closer to 3-3.5ish buds making that sale closer to 4.5-4.6 which is close to 5
current trade
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17044721
Rejected some offers
clean moon back biter
Bubble Pipe kill-a-watt
C9 hat of cards
Edit: Hope this shows how much im downplaying the 4th link
A duped PE beret has sold for 3.5 buds in the past
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14609664
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/17087581
offered PE backbiters + 35 keys