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Gentlemen, it is time.
So, the O. Fire Hazmatten is finally priced, so I can update this.
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15807602
1:1 with the O. Fire Hazmattenhatten. 2 Buds After overpay
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16348471
Seems to have 1:1'd with an UC Lumbricus Lid. 3 Buds After overpay.
Sold to this guy: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198071252054?time=1388908800
I'm using the low end of the price on the Lid (3.4) * 0.9 and rounded down (it's 3.06, so it'd normally round up) because its gifted. If I wasn't supposed to do that, I can resuggest this at 2-3.1 (although I dont think it'll matter too much, it seems all 4 of these are off the market for now).
Aaaaaand those are the only two recent enough sales to use. I made an earlier suggestion with a V. Tower offer (~4) which was outdated and a Cauldron Bubbles Scotch Bonnet (~3 iirc) which had an outdated price. Honestly, this seems like a better range anyway.
Comments and such go below. Yes, I do own this chunk of sexy pixels. No, I am not selling it. The Price is simply 11 months old and is in need of an update. It doesn't seem to have changed very much.
Gifted is lower than 3, you'll probably have to make a mini-suggestion for that.
Downvoted, sorry.
The site just says 3.4-3.5, and the new owner is selling it for 3 (He's also the only seller on OP, just checked).
Also, cant suggest gifted hats, so I dont see what you mean there.Is this what you meant?EDIT -- So, only trade I could find on that gifted Lid, Badazzan bought the Lid and a P. Fetti Veil (6 Buds) + 6 Keys for a Misty Skull Grimm Hatte (5.9-7) + Stormy Gentleman's Ushanka (5.6-6.3). Cant find who offered, but that puts the Lid at well above 3 Buds, closer to 5 Buds even.
So even assuming that Badazzan was paying the overpay, the Lid was valued at well over 3. I think taking it at 3 flat is just fine, maybe even an underestimate (but a larger range would be too big anyway)
Check this: http://backpack.tf/id/76561198071252054?time=1388390400 and the day before for proof.
The other trade I saw (Proof buying the Lid) was not for TF2 items (either that, or the seller got scammed big time).
Next oldest trade I could find after that was 7 months old, so Badazzan's buying and selling are the only valid trades.
While the sale of the lid is not usable as proof, offers consistently at 2.5+ and up to 3 certainly support this range
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/16348471 - offers up to 3 after overpay here
http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/15807602 - blokes is ~2.7 after overpay here